Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
